December 12, 2009

The Nuge and Miller

I would like to address why I haven't posted the March 14th poll data before I get into why the following candidates currently have no viability. Basing any strategy on a poll taken nineteen months the general election and fifteen months before the primary campaign, is not just ridiculous it is dangerous. At this stage in the election cycle there are still candidates entering the race. No candidate has had a chance to have their political image tested by the popular press. So far only the blogosphere (including podcasts) has really started to turn it's attention to the governors race.

By non-viable I mean to say that, currently, these candidates have not been able to present themselves in the same way that other gubernatorial candidates have presented themselves in past campaigns that have been successful. A successful image doesn't mean that a person with that political image has won; success only means that a candidate with a similar image has been seen as having a chance to win (or as viable).

Non-Viable Republican Candidates:

Ted Nugent:
The only way that celeb's usually make it to any state's executive office are though:
1. A special election. Everyone hates the current party because of the current scandal and everyone is on the ballet. Whoever gets above 30% of the vote is usually the winner.
2. Having held an elected (political) office before.
Having neither of these any bid for the nomination of the Republican party would be insane. Hell, Don Williamson is running, so he might just do it.

Candice Miller: 

'95-'03 Michigan's Secretary of State
'04-'09 Michigan's 10th District US House Rep.

Whoaaahh! Hold on!
You say: Candice Miller toally has a chance!
I say: 2000 Redistricting.
You say: 1 Million vote margin win in 2000.
You say: Popular House member.
I say: Representing the the Thumb.
You say: That's apart of Michigan.
I say: So is the U.P. but you don't see Bart Stupak running for Governor.
You say:  15 years political service
I say: Palin Truth Squad.

I don't think that she has no chance but if she is seriously going to run for Governor, she has to get out there in the spotlight. For there to be two conseritives running in the primary someone has to come out swinging, at the other. If this were any other year, Miller would have a great shot at ousting a Democrat, however, unless there is a major scandal 2010 for the Democratic brand or the Republicans have a really moderate message (somethink like, pro-worker or pro-education) this should be an eleciton for the democrats.

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